At the end of next week the French electorate will reduce down the list of candidates for the Presidency to just two. Five years ago, it was Le Pen, the nationalist and defeated contender twice before, and the arriviste, Emmanuel Macron. Macron had stormed the citadel with a brand new party and zero experience in politics. So fed up were the French with the bi-partisan stitch up of the last five decades that they voted him in with an overwhelming majority. The vote was much anticipated. Here was a candidate who exemplified the liberal values of the post war consensus and his victory gave all of us cause for celebration after the resurgence of populist victories in the UK and USA. It seemed as if the rot represented by Brexit and Trump had been stopped and, dare we believe it, reversed, as the French showed us the way back to our senses.
Five years on and the race is set to be a re-run between the same two candidates. But this time, a more refined and polished Le Pen will, in all likelihood, face off against a Macron tarnished by five years in power. The last five years of draconian Covid restrictions imposed by the seemingly out of touch an elitist Macron regime and soaring costs of living all over Europe are the classic breeding grounds for populist politics to take hold. If Le Pen pulls off her third time attempt, we can wave goodbye to the EU and any unified western response to the Ukrainian crisis. All hell will break loose and Putin will have exactly what he wants: disunity in Europe. And if, in two years time, a resurgent Donald Trump regains the Whitehouse, we are looking at a very bleak world. We are looking at a world which will have gone backwards to the 1930s.
Next week, we travel to Paris. It is my sixth outing at the IMAP annual conference. The venue is the Westin Hotel Vendôme, just opposite the Jardins de Tuilleries in central Paris. Tanya and I are accompanied by Emily for her second visit to the city and we are staying for the week. By Sunday 10th April, we will know the final two candidates for the Presidency. That evening we will be with our friends Masha and Periq when the news comes in. Like us, they are an immigrant family: he is native French, from Brittany, and she is Russian. These are worrying times for us immigrant families. Not only do populist regimes stir up antagonism towards all immigrants, the current war in Ukraine doubles down on that with anti-Russian sentiment. We watch all of the developments with trepidation. These are difficult times to be an outsider.
If the votes from the eliminated far left candidate get transferred to Macron, then we are safe for another five years. If they do not – and the French electorate is very disillusioned with Macron – and many either do not vote in protest or vote for Le Pen, just to try something different, then Marine Le Pen could get by default. She must be stopped. She is France’s equivalent of Oswald Mosley – their very own blackshirt. Let us pray that we do not end up with fascism once again at the heart of Europe. Let us hope that, for once, the pen is not mightier.
(Photo by Franck Prevel/Getty Images) 
Oswald Mosley 1930s